A Chinese government think tank has urged the country's leaders to start phasing out its one-child policy immediately and allow two children for every family by 2015.中国政府智囊团督促政府立即逐步淘汰独生子女政策，在2015年之前实行两胎政策。The unpopular restriction - which has been in place since 1980 - has led to millions fewer births, but also contributed to the ageing of China's huge population.该政策不受欢迎，自1980年就已存在，虽减少了数百万人口，但也导致了中国庞大人口老龄化。The proposal is being given extra weight because it has been put forward by the China Development Research Foundation which is close to the government's central leadership.该提议已受到额外重视，因其由与政府中央领导有密切关系的中国发展研究基金会提出。The official Xinhua News Agency said the foundation recommends a two-child policy be permitted in some provinces from this year and nationwide by 2015.新华社称，该基室征金会建议今年开始在某些省份实行两胎政策，在2015年之前在全国范围内实行两胎政策。Xie Meng, a press affairs official with the foundation, said the final version of the report wil be released 'in a week or two.' But Chinese state media have been given advance copies.谢梦，负责该基金会新闻事务的，她说该报告一两周后会公布于众，但中国媒体已经拿行挡祸到了预发本。It proposes all birth limits be dropped by 2020, Xinhua reported. 据新华社报道，该基金会提议在2020年之前取消所有限制生育的规定。'China has paid a huge political and social cost for the policy, as it has resulted in social conflict, high administrative costs and led indirectly to a long-term gender imbalance at birth,' Xinhua said, citing the report. 该报告指出：“中国已凡荒为此政策付出了巨大的政治和社会代价，该政策的实施导致了社会冲突，高行政成本，间接造成长期男女比例失衡。”But it remains unclear whether Chinese leaders are ready to take up the recommendations. Some experts have also warned that the gradual approach, if implemented, would still be insufficient to help correct the problems that China's strict birth limits have created.China's National Population and Family Planning Commission had no immediate comment on the report today.但目前仍不清楚中国政府是否会接受该提议。一些专家也警告说,这种循序渐进的办法,如果实施,仍不足以帮助纠正严格计划生育政策造成的问题。中国国家人口和计划生育委员会没有对此报告立即发表评论。Known to many as the one-child policy, China's actual birth-restriction rules are more complicated. 很多人都把中国的限制生育规定理解为一胎化政策，但实际上复杂的多。The government limits most urban couples to one child, and allows two children for rural families if their first-born is a girl. 政府规定大多数城市家庭只能生一胎，但农村家庭第一胎如果是女孩，就可生二胎。There are numerous other exceptions as well, including looser rules for minority families and a two-child limit for parents who are themselves both singletons. 还有其他的特例，如对少数民族的政策宽松，若父母皆独生则可生二胎。Cai Yong, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, said the report holds extra weight because the think tank is under the State Council, China's Cabinet. 北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校社会学助理教授蔡勇说，该报告有额外分量，因为该智囊团从属国务院，国务院相当于中国的内阁。He said he found it remarkable that state-backed demographers were willing to publicly propose such a detailed schedule and plan on how to get rid of China's birth limits. 受政府支持的人口统计学家愿意公开提出一份关于如何取消中国限制生育规定的详细时间表和计划，他觉得这个做法很了不起。'That tells us at least that policy change is inevitable, it's coming,' said Mr Yong, who was not involved in the drafting of the report but knows many of the experts who were. 他还说：“这告诉我们政策变动不可避免且指日可待。”蔡勇先生并未参加该报告的起草，但他熟知很多参与起草过程的专家。'It's coming, but we cannot predict when exactly it will come,' he said.“虽然政策会变动，但我们无法预知具体时间。”Adding to the uncertainty is a once-in-a-decade leadership transition that kicks off week that will see a new slate of top leaders installed by spring 2013.十八大将会在一周内揭开序幕，加上这每十年一次领导层过渡的不确定性，这就得看2013年新上任的最高领导人了。Mr Yong said the transition could keep population reform on the back burner or changes might be rushed through to help burnish the reputations of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao on their way out. 蔡先生指出：这个过渡可能使得人口改革遭搁置，也可能会造成突发性人口改革，目的是为国家主席胡锦涛和国务院总理温家宝在届满前增添声誉。There has been growing speculation in China over whether the government will relax the one-child policy - introduced in 1980 as a temporary measure to curb surging population growth - and allow more people to have two children. 越来越多的人开始猜测中国政府是否会放松一胎化政策，是否会允许更多人生育二胎---该政策自1980年开始执行，作为暂时性措施来遏制人口猛增。Though the government credits the policy with preventing hundreds of millions of births and helping lift countless families out of poverty, it is reviled by many ordinary people. 虽然政府方面相信该政策的执行减少了数百万人口的出生，帮助无数家庭摆脱贫困，但该政策还是引发了民众不满。The strict limits have led to forced abortions and sterilizations, even though such measures are illegal.严格的政策限制导致强制堕胎和绝育手术,即使这些行为都是非法的。Couples who flout the rules face hefty fines, seizure of their property and loss of their jobs. 如违反该政策，夫妻将面临巨额罚款，财产没收和失业。Many demographers argue that the policy has worsened the country's aging crisis by limiting the size of the young labor pool that must support the large baby boom generation as it retires. 许多人口统计学家认为,该政策加剧了国家的老龄化危机，在婴儿潮一代退休后，年轻一代面临着赡养这些老人的责任。They say it has contributed to the imbalanced sex ratio by encouraging families to abort baby girls, preferring to try for a male heir. 他们还指出，该政策导致了性别比例失衡，变向地造成了很多人怀女胎后选择流产，因为他们更想要男性继承人。The government recognizes those problems and has tried to address them by boosting social services for the elderly.政府也已意识到了这些问题，一直试图通过为老年人提高社会服务来解决。It has also banned sex-selective abortion and rewarded rural families whose only child is a girl. Many today also see the birth limits as outdated, a relic of the era when housing, jobs and food were provided by the state. 政府明令禁止性别选择性堕胎，奖励独生女的农村家庭。当今，许多人认为限制生育已过时，是一个由国家提供住房，就业和食品的时代的遗留物。'It has been thirty years since our planned economy was liberalised,' commented Wang Yi, the owner of a shop that sells textiles online, under a news report on the foundation's proposal.'So why do we still have to plan our population?'王逸，一家网上销售纺织用品商店的老板，在一篇关于该基金会提议的新闻中说道：“计划经济自由化已有30年，我们为什么还要计划生育呢?”Though open debate about the policy has flourished in state media and on the Internet, leaders have so far expressed a desire to maintain the status quo. 尽管官方媒体和互联网上关于计划生育政策的讨论非常活跃，但是领导人至今已表示，希望保持现状。President Hu said last year that China would keep its strict family planning policy to keep the birth rate low and other officials have said that no changes are expected until at least 2015. 胡主席去年表示中国将会保持其严格的计划生育政策来保持低出生率，其他官方人士也表示截止到2015年不会发生任何变化。Gu Baochang, a professor of demography at Beijing's Renmin University and a vocal advocate of reform, said the proposed timeline wasn't aggressive enough. 'They should have reformed this policy ages ago,' he said. 'It just keeps getting held up, delayed.'北京人民大学人口统计学教授和